A poisoned chalice

As one poll points to the likelihood of a Corbyn victory, another highlights Labour's problems in Scotland

As the Conservatives bask in the sunlit uplands of a shock election victory (otherwise known as the beaches of southern Europe), the Labour Party continues to command the interest of most political observers. Last night a new YouGov poll indicated that Jeremy Corbyn is on track to win the contest for the party’s leadership, a result which would be one of the most surprising in modern political history. While political polling remains in the dock following its failure to predict a Conservative victory in May, Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, has staked his company’s remaining credibility on predicting a ‘knockout’ victory for Corbyn.

The news came as another poll highlighted the challenges facing Labour north of the border. A TNS poll has pointed to another landslide victory for the SNP in the elections to the Scottish Parliament next May. According to the poll, support for the SNP has increased to 62% when respondents are asked how they will vote at constituency level. Labour is stuck on 20%. With the results of the Scottish Labour leadership contest to be announced this weekend, any hope the next Scottish Labour leader had of turning things around before the election appears to have already evaporated. Instead a long-term rebuilding strategy, aimed at electoral victory further down the line, may now be more realistic. The chances of Jeremy Corbyn still being leader of the national party at that stage seem remote.

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